Ah, yes, the smell of leather and the sound of a ball hitting a bat (and splintering the bat into a million pieces lately). Baseball is in the air, and the Brewers hit the field today in San Francisco, weather permitting. Coming off their first playoff season since 1982, the Brewers have optimism, and a lot of questions. I would venture that this season could be pivotal in determining the direction of the franchise for the next 5-7 years, based on what the Brewers do with their roster as the July 31st trading deadline approaches.
First, I do not expect a major deal like the Sabathia trade if the Brewers are 10 or more games out by the Fourth of July. BUT if the team is still in contention, I can see them pulling the trigger on a deal involving a Jake Peavy (who will mentioned in 1,000 rumored trades before Memorial Day). It begs the question: Who could the Brewers package in a deal? There are number of candidates, starting with a player who appears to be the biggest one-hit wonder since Taco put on the ritz in the early '80s:
1 - Bill Hall - He hit .270-35-85 in 2006, and was rewarded with a large contract. Since then, he has hit .254 (2007) and .225 last year, and 29 homers over the two seasons. Needless to say, Hall has not paid dividends, and with Mat Gamel breathing down his neck, his days could be numbered. The question is whether a team will take his salary, or will the Brewers have to pick up some of the tab.
2 - Rickie Weeks - One of the most likely scenarios is Weeks gets moved, since, if he finally produces this year, he will be priced out of the Brewers' budget in the off-season, and, if he does not produce, the Brewers may finally throw in the towel on the former Number One draft pick. If you see the Brewers sign J.J. Hardy to a long-term deal, it would increase the chances Weeks is dealt, with Alcides Escobar moving into the shortstop role. Another scenario could be Escobar going to third (if Gamel's defense does not improve - he had 85 errors over the past two seasons) and Hall goes to second. 3B Taylor Green is two years away from being a contender for a spot on the roster, which would give the Brewers some more flexibility down the road.
3 - Mike Cameron - The Brewers could move him to a pennant contender for the stretch drive if they are out of the race, and let Tony Gwynn, Jr. have one last chance to prove he can stick in the majors. Either way, I expect Lorenzo Cain to be the centerfielder in 2010 or 2011 at the latest.
4 - Corey Hart - If the late-season struggles continue for him into this season, the Brewers may try to move him before his arbitration numbers climb past the team's comfort level. OF Cole Gillespie has not shown enough to be considered his replacement, but I could see a scenario where the Brewers convert Gamel into an outfielder (see Ryan Braun) and use him to replace Hart.
5 - Dave Bush - A big season for Bush will mean big contract numbers come November. Unfortunately, the options in the minors to replace him are limited. Former top draft pick Jeremy Jeffress has a great fastball, but also has a history of substance abuse, and is being touted as a closer in the future, perhaps as soon as next year. RHP Omar Aguilar struggled with control, and is also being projected as a reliever-closer, not a starter. LHP Zach Braddock has struggled with his health (a common problem with top pitching prospects in the farm systems), and RHP Cody Scarpetta is at least two years away from being a big league pitcher, though he shows signs of being an innings-eater if he reaches Miller Park.
6 - Jason Kendall - This is the wildcard. At his age and with his overuse (in my opinion), the Brewers have to be looking at an eventual replacement, and may decide to to get what value they can if they are out of contention come July 31st. The Brewers have two legitimate prospects - Angel Salome (one to two years away) and Jonathan Lucroy (who will be in Class AA this season) - but they are not ready for the majors yet. The Brewers could turn the reins over to Mike Rivera if they move Kendall, and sign a free agent in 2010 to a 1-year deal.
7 - Prince Fielder - He has a 2-year deal, but it appears more and more likely the Prince will end up a DH in the American League if he prices himself out of Milwaukee. The problem for Milwaukee is that they have no viable replacement (Brad Nelson?) on the roster or in the minors.
With those options out there, here is a peak into the crystal ball:
THE 2011 BREWERS
C Angel Salome
1B Prince Fielder or Brad Nelson
2B J.J. Hardy
SS Alcides Escobar
3B Taylor Green
LF Ryan Braun
CF Lorenzo Cain
RF Mat Gamel
SP Yovanni Gallardo
SP Manny Parra
SP Carlos Villanueva
SP Cody Scarpetta
SP Zach Braddock
CL Jeremy Jeffress
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
PLAY BALL....Most likely Brewers to be traded
Posted by Aaron Kramer at 4/07/2009 10:26:00 AM